{"id":47386,"date":"2026-01-16T15:43:57","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/voiceofkp.org\/en\/?p=47386"},"modified":"2026-01-16T15:43:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T10:43:57","slug":"controlled-borders-contained-risks-pakistan-stands-firm-as-afghanistan-struggles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/voiceofkp.org\/en\/controlled-borders-contained-risks-pakistan-stands-firm-as-afghanistan-struggles\/","title":{"rendered":"Controlled Borders, Contained Risks: Pakistan Stands Firm as Afghanistan Struggles"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pakistan\u2019s border closures aim to protect national security as Afghan militants continue using Afghan soil to attack across the frontier.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maaz Khan\u00a0<\/strong>
\nPESHAWAR: Shortly after dawn in Kabul, the streets around the wholesale markets begin to stir. Shopkeepers lift metal shutters, traders gather for tea, and truck drivers scroll endlessly through their phones, waiting for updates that never seem to arrive.
\nThe goods they are waiting for \u2014 medicine, fuel, cement, fruits \u2014 are not far away. Most are stuck across the border, held up by a decision taken hundreds of kilometres south.
\nAs of January 16, 2026, Pakistan\u2019s closure of key Afghan transit and trade routes has entered its eighty-third day. Implemented on October 12, 2025, the restrictions were imposed on security grounds. But for Afghanistan, the fallout has evolved into something far larger than a temporary disruption. What is unfolding is a slow-moving economic shock \u2014 largely unnoticed outside the region, yet deeply destabilising inside the country.
\nThis is not a crisis marked by explosions or dramatic collapse. It is quieter, incremental, and relentless. Containers pile up. Markets thin out. Prices creep upward. Livelihoods disappear. And for a landlocked country already struggling under sanctions, poverty, and political isolation, the margin for survival grows thinner by the day.<\/p>\n

A Lifeline Severed<\/strong>
\nAfghanistan\u2019s geography has always defined its economy. As a landlocked country, it depends heavily on neighbouring states for access to global markets. Among all available routes, Pakistan has long been the most practical: the shortest distance, the lowest cost, and the most developed infrastructure.
\nFor decades, Afghan trade flowed through Karachi port and across the land crossings at Torkham and Chaman. Through these corridors, Afghanistan exported its signature goods \u2014 dry fruits, saffron, carpets, coal \u2014 and imported essentials ranging from food and fuel to medicines and industrial inputs. The system was imperfect, often politicised, and periodically disrupted, but it functioned.
\nThat system is now largely frozen.
\nAccording to figures shared by the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, bilateral trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan has fallen by nearly 45 per cent since the closures began. Afghan traders estimate daily losses of $1.8 to $2 million, pushing the cumulative damage to $400\u2013500 million in just over two months.
\nMore than 11,000 cargo containers, many carrying perishable or time-sensitive goods, remain stuck at Pakistani ports and border points. Their total value runs into several billion dollars, tying up capital, paralysing businesses, and triggering disputes between traders, insurers, and banks.
\n\u201cThis is not just a slowdown,\u201d says an Afghan logistics operator in Kabul who requested anonymity. \u201cIt is a near-total paralysis of the supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Exports in Freefall<\/strong>
\nThe impact is most visible in Afghanistan\u2019s already fragile export sector.
\nFor years, Afghan traders worked to establish markets for products that carried both economic and cultural value: handwoven carpets, saffron cultivated in Herat, dried fruits from Kandahar and Badakhshan, coal from northern provinces. These exports generated much-needed foreign exchange in an economy starved of liquidity.
\nNow, many of those goods are either not moving at all or are being rerouted through far longer and more expensive alternatives.
\n\u201cInternational buyers do not wait,\u201d says a carpet exporter in Herat. \u201cIf Afghan shipments are delayed or prices rise, they switch to Iran, Turkey, or Central Asia. Once you lose a buyer, you rarely get them back.\u201d
\nThe closures have compounded an existing decline. According to World Bank data, Afghanistan\u2019s coal exports fell by 64 per cent in 2024, while overall exports declined by 12 per cent. Traders say the current blockade-like conditions risk wiping out what remains of Afghanistan\u2019s export credibility.
\nFor a country with limited production capacity and almost no access to international banking, the loss of export earnings carries consequences far beyond individual businesses.<\/p>\n

When Shortages Reach Homes<\/strong>
\nIf export losses threaten Afghanistan\u2019s future, import disruptions are harming its present.
\nAfghanistan depends heavily on Pakistan for critical imports, particularly:
\n\u2022 Medicines and medical supplies<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Wheat and other staple foods<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Fuel and cooking gas<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Industrial raw materials<\/strong><\/span>
\nWith transit routes restricted, shortages have begun to surface across Afghan cities. Pharmacies report dwindling stocks of essential medicines. Fuel prices have surged, raising transport costs and pushing up food prices. In lower-income neighbourhoods, families are already cutting meals or turning to cheaper, less nutritious alternatives.
\n\u201cThis is becoming a humanitarian issue,\u201d said a Kabul-based aid worker. \u201cWhen medicines don\u2019t arrive and food prices rise, it is the poorest who absorb the shock.\u201d
\nThe timing is especially severe. Winter has tightened its grip, energy demand is rising, and household incomes are falling. Unlike previous trade disruptions, there is little cushion left.
\nThe Illusion of Alternatives
\nIn response to the closures, Afghan authorities and traders have accelerated efforts to shift trade through Iran and Central Asia. On paper, diversification appears sensible. In practice, it has exposed Afghanistan\u2019s structural vulnerability.
\nIran, itself under heavy sanctions and economic strain, lacks the capacity to absorb Afghanistan\u2019s sudden transit needs. Congestion at ports, currency instability, and regulatory hurdles have made the route unreliable and costly.
\nCentral Asian corridors present a different set of problems: underdeveloped rail and road infrastructure, fragmented customs systems, and higher transit fees. For many Afghan traders, these routes add weeks and thousands of dollars in additional costs.
\n\u201cThese are not alternatives,\u201d said a regional trade expert based in Islamabad. \u201cThey are emergency detours \u2014 slower, costlier, and unsustainable at scale.\u201d
\nDespite diplomatic messaging about regional connectivity, geography remains unforgiving.<\/p>\n

The Broader Economic Shock<\/strong>
\nBeyond trade statistics, the closures are sending shockwaves through Afghanistan\u2019s wider economy.
\nEconomists estimate that when indirect losses \u2014 such as reduced tax revenue, job losses, currency pressure, and stalled investment \u2014 are factored in, Afghanistan may have already suffered $6\u20137 billion in cumulative economic damage over the past 75 days.
\nThe symptoms are increasingly visible:
\n\u2022 Rising inflation across urban markets<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Sustained pressure on the Afghan currency<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Declining state revenues<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Closure of small and medium enterprises<\/strong><\/span>
\n\u2022 Growing unemployment and underemployment<\/strong><\/span>
\nFor a country with limited fiscal tools and no access to international financial systems, absorbing such shocks is exceptionally difficult.
\n\u201cThis economy was already operating on survival mode,\u201d says an Afghan economist. \u201cThe closures push it closer to systemic failure.\u201d<\/p>\n

A Crisis with Regional Consequences<\/strong>
\nWhile Afghanistan\u2019s economic distress is deepening, its repercussions are increasingly contained within Afghan territory, reflecting Pakistan\u2019s significantly tightened border management over the past several years.
\nSecurity analysts note that Pakistan\u2019s completion of extensive border fencing, enhanced surveillance, and stricter customs enforcement have sharply reduced illicit cross-border movement. Smuggling networks that once thrived along the frontier have been largely dismantled, and undocumented crossings have dropped to a fraction of previous levels.
\n\u201cUnlike the past, Pakistan now has the infrastructure and enforcement capacity to insulate itself from economic spillovers originating across the border,\u201d observes Ghulam Dastageer, a Peshawar-based journalist who has extensively worked on border fencing. \u201cThe fencing has fundamentally altered cross-border dynamics.\u201d
\nFrom Islamabad\u2019s perspective, the closure of trade routes is therefore framed not as a destabilising act, but as a security-driven measure taken within a controlled border environment. With illicit trade curtailed and border permeability reduced, Pakistan faces minimal internal economic or security fallout from Afghanistan\u2019s current downturn.
\nHistorically, Pakistan\u2013Afghanistan trade disruptions did carry regional consequences. What distinguishes the present episode is that Pakistan has already absorbed those risks through long-term border management investments, even as Afghanistan \u2014 now facing unprecedented economic fragility \u2014 bears the overwhelming cost of the disruption.<\/p>\n

Geography, Again<\/strong>
\nAt its core, the crisis underscores a simple reality: geography is not negotiable.
\nAfghanistan\u2019s economic survival remains deeply tied to access through Pakistan. No amount of political rhetoric can erase that dependency in the short or medium term. Traders on both sides of the border warn that repeated closures erode trust, discourage investment, and push commerce into informal channels.
\n\u201cOnce trade becomes unpredictable, businesses stop planning,\u201d says a Pakistani freight forwarder involved in Afghan transit trade. \u201cThey either shut down or move underground.\u201d<\/p>\n

Waiting for Relief<\/strong>
\nAs winter deepens, the cost of the closures continues to rise \u2014 measured not just in dollars, but in diminished lives. In Kabul, shopkeepers shorten business hours to save fuel. In provincial towns, farmers struggle to sell produce. Across the country, families stretch shrinking incomes to cover rising prices.
\nFor many Afghans, the crisis is no longer abstract or geopolitical. It is immediate and personal.
\nIf the current restrictions persist, economists warn Afghanistan risks sliding into a prolonged economic contraction \u2014 one whose effects could last generations.
\nAs thousands of containers remain idle and markets continue to thin, a stark question hangs over the region: How long can a landlocked country endure with its lifelines cut?<\/p>\n

Security Deadlock: The TTP Factor<\/strong>
\nPakistan argues that the current economic disruption cannot be separated from Afghanistan\u2019s failure to act against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants operating from Afghan territory. Pakistan has shared a credible dossier with the Afghan authorities establishing that these groups continue to use Afghan soil to plan and launch attacks inside Pakistan, despite repeated diplomatic engagements and assurances from Kabul.
\nFrom Islamabad\u2019s standpoint, the suspension of trade routes reflects a security imperative rather than economic pressure. \u201cNo country can sustain open trade when armed groups are allowed to threaten its citizens from across the border,\u201d says a Pakistani security official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
\nAnalysts note that Afghanistan\u2019s continued denial or inaction has narrowed its economic and diplomatic space. Pakistan maintains that regional trade and stability are inseparable from credible counterterrorism commitments. Without recalibrating its internal security posture and external policies \u2014 particularly towards Pakistan\u2014Afghanistan risks prolonged isolation and deeper economic decline.
\nThe impasse, observers say, leaves Kabul facing a clear choice: redesign policies to restore regional confidence, or slide further into economic obscurity driven by unresolved security concerns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pakistan\u2019s border closures aim to protect national security as Afghan militants continue using Afghan soil to attack across the frontier. Maaz Khan\u00a0 PESHAWAR: Shortly after dawn in Kabul, the streets around the wholesale markets begin to stir. Shopkeepers lift metal shutters, traders gather for tea, and truck drivers scroll endlessly through their phones, waiting for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":47387,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[324,8],"tags":[685,40,53,34,258,43,83,46,332,437],"class_list":["post-47386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-opinions","tag-pakarmy","tag-afghan-peace-agreement","tag-afghanistan","tag-fata","tag-human-rights","tag-pak-afghan","tag-pakistan","tag-terrorism","tag-tribal-districts","tag-ttp-attacks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nControlled Borders, Contained Risks: Pakistan Stands Firm as Afghanistan Struggles - Voice of KP English<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pakistan\u2019s border closures aim to protect national security as Afghan militants continue using Afghan soil to attack across the frontier.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/voiceofkp.org\/en\/controlled-borders-contained-risks-pakistan-stands-firm-as-afghanistan-struggles\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Controlled Borders, Contained Risks: Pakistan Stands Firm as Afghanistan Struggles - 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