TTP Presence in Afghanistan: Implications for Pak-Afghan Bilateral Relations and National Security
The actions of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are significantly straining bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly following Taliban return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. TTP has established strong ties with the Afghan Taliban, complicating the security dynamics on the western border of the country. Since 2021, there has been a clear surge in violence and terrorism inside Pakistan, emanating from Afghanistan under the Afghan Taliban rein. TTP has become a proxy and strategic arm of Kabul to pressurize Pakistan through violent actions and Psyops. Being a sovereign state, Pakistan guards its freedom elatedly. During the last three years, Pakistan western provinces i.e. Baluchistan and KP have witnessed an alarming increase in violence mostly by TTP. The presence of TTP in Afghanistan, its relations with Kabul regime and the impact of these relations on Pak-Afghan bilateral relations must be analyzed to understand the implications of these dynamics.
TTP considers itself an extension of the Afghan Taliban and pledged allegiance to its leadership sharing similar ideological goals. This relationship has enabled TTP to operate with relative impunity from Afghan territory, posing a direct threat to Pakistan’s security. The group has escalated its attacks against Pakistani security forces, leading to increased tensions between Islamabad and Kabul. But the strangest element in this entire equation is the role of Kabul regime that once promised the world that Afghan soil will not be used against any neighbor. Now they have breached their own promise!
In response to TTP’s activities, Pakistan had to conduct airstrikes targeting TTP hideouts in Afghanistan, which have prompted retaliatory fire from Afghan forces which further invited a response from Pakistani ground forces and artillery. These military actions reflect Pakistan’s disappointment with the Afghan Taliban’s failure to curb TTP operations, despite Islamabad’s expectations that the Taliban would act against groups threatening its stability. The ongoing military confrontations undermined trust and centuries old brotherly relations between the two nations.
Though Afghan government has denied the fact that TTP is acting as proxy of Afghan Taliban against Pakistan saying they do not permit groups like TTP to launch attacks from Afghan soil. But it is commonly known fact that TTP’s leadership is in Afghanistan and its enjoying protection from Afghan regime. The lack of cooperation from the Taliban in addressing Pakistan’s security concerns has led Islamabad to reconsider its diplomatic approach as well. Pakistan is now engaging with the prominent global players to appraise them about Pakistan’s position and policy towards TTP and Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan and Afghan forces keep engaging in kinetic action through artillery duels. This ongoing conflict has broader implications for regional stability as well. With India’s increased engagement with the Taliban, Pakistan feels compelled to assert its influence over Afghanistan while managing its own internal security challenges posed by the TTP. The situation has been further complicated by humanitarian issues as Pakistan has begun deporting Afghan refugees amid rising tensions, exacerbating the crisis for those fleeing violence. The inability of the Afghan Taliban to control TTP activities is likely to continue fueling tensions and complicating efforts for peaceful coexistence of the two countries in the region.
Since regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, TTP has strengthened its operational capabilities and amplified attacks within Pakistan. In 2023, Pakistan recorded nearly 3,000 casualties from terrorism, with a substantial proportion attributed to TTP and other militant groups operating from Afghan territory. TTP resurgence is closely linked to the Afghan Taliban support, which has provided them with sanctuary and resources to conduct operations against Pakistani security forces, resulting extreme tension on the international border between Islamabad and Kabul.
Pakistan has conducted cross-border airborne strikes targeting TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. This marks a significant escalation in military engagement compared to previous years when such actions were rare. The Pakistani military’s willingness to strike within Afghan territory reflects a more aggressive stance aimed at neutralizing TTP threats.
Islamabad has reduced its diplomatic support for the Afghan Taliban at international forums, previously advocating for their recognition and engagement. Instead, Pakistan now publicly calls for the Taliban to act against the TTP and has sought assistance from international partners, including the United States, to address the security challenges posed by the TTP.
Pakistan’s internal security strategy has also evolved considering the TTP’s activities. Pakistan Army has enhanced counter-terrorism operations within its borders, focusing on intelligence-gathering and border security measures to prevent cross-border incursions by TTP militants. Pakistan Army has begun deploying emerging technologies like UCAVs to monitor Pak-Afghan border and take required kinetic action based on real time intelligence.
In Summary, The TTP presence in Afghanistan has compelled Pakistan to recalibrate its national security policies significantly. The shift towards a more confrontational approach with both military operations and diplomatic pressure indicates Islamabad’s urgency in addressing what it perceives as an existential threat. As tensions continue between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban over their inability or unwillingness to curb TTP activities, it remains critical for Pakistan to develop a comprehensive strategy that includes regional cooperation and internal consolidation efforts to ensure long-term stability. Afghan Taliban must reconsider their decision to allow TTP to use Afghan soil as launching pad against Pakistan else Pakistan will have to seek ways to bring a change in Kabul. For its own sovereignty Pakistan has all the legal and moral rights to do so!
Shahzad Masood Roomi