Daily Archives: October 7, 2022

Laila Khan

Since last few decades, Pakistan has been stuck by many catastrophic natural calamities including earthquake in 2005 which resulted in heavy economic and human losses. Similarly; 2010 floods swept away not only the infrastructure but thousands of lives with itself. The latest in the series of natural disasters that shocked every Pakistani was the Murree snowstorm incident and the recent whopping floods that submerged half of the country.

In all of these events of utter misfortune, Pakistan Armed forces always remained at the forefront to help its civilian population. Pakistan Army is considered to be one of the best armies in the world. Global Firepower Index ranked Pakistan defense forces as the “9th most powerful military” in the world. So, there is no doubt about the professionalism and capabilities of Pakistan Army. It has remained the most well managed, disciplined and responsive institution of the country in terms of its disaster management policies, relief & rehabilitation operations and humanitarian response.

The commendable efforts of Pakistan Army in the case of Murree snowstorm and in Covid-19 pandemic are among many for the sustenance and development of Pakistan. Heavy machinery and men power were used to save the lives of people stuck in Murree. On the other hand, during severe wave of Covid, soldiers on the roads and streets made sure that people were following standard operating procedures, including social distancing and masking. Pakistan Army has played a remarkable role in providing health facilities to citizens. Throughout the year, Army doctors organized camps for civilians and provide free treatment in many areas. Today, more than forty state of the art Army hospitals are functional throughout the country with the best possible facilities available.

The recent flash floods caused by abnormal monsoon rain and cloudbursts have wreaked havoc in many districts of Balochistan, KP, South Punjab and Sindh. In these pernicious times for the entire nation, Pakistan army has played an unprecedented role to rescue the people caught-up in the flood affected areas. It has probably the only fully functional and organized institution to extend their services beyond security issues and help Pakistan overcome the disastrous consequences of natural calamities.

Pakistan army launched a massive rescue and relief operations throughout Pakistan and saved thousands of lives. As part of its national responsibility, the Pakistan Army has established a National Army flood Relief and Rescue coordination center under Headquarters Army Air Defense Command to manage relief and rescue operations. In the month of August 2022, a Lieutenant General Sarfaraz Ali (Corps Commander Quetta)along with his fellow officials sacrificed their lives in-line of their rescue mission during floods in Lasbela, Balochistan.

In addition, under the supervision of Relief, Rescue and Rehabilitation organization, Pakistan Army is in close coordination with Disaster  Management authority to provide assistance to the flood affected people through multiple means. During the current floods, so far, almost 50,000 people have been rescued and shifted to safe places and more than 147 relief camps have been established by the Army. Effected People have been provided with medical assistance in around 250 temporary medical centers. The armed forces have also managed to distribute more than 3,700 tents and other necessary items among the victims.

Not only the forces extended their help in rescue operations but also provided approximately 1793 tons of food packages including ready to eat meal to the effected people. In this spirit, all the general officers of the army aka heroes in uniform have also donated their one-month salary to help the victims. Moreover, the officers also giving donations on voluntary basis to help civilian in their difficult times. In view of the emergency situation, the Pakistan Army has also established  donation centers in all major cities for the collection of funds and goods under the instructions of the federal Government. To ensure the equal distribution of medical and food assistance, army officers including army doctors and nurses are tirelessly working in relief camps.

Apart from Pak Army, Air and Naval forces have also contributed its fair share to rescue people from the devastating climate catastrophe. Forty-one Relief camps have been established by PAF working across the country to help people. Besides, 1521 lives have been saved through aerial operations using military helicopter. Meanwhile diving teams are dispatched to the heavily flooded areas to rescue the stuck people.

In these challenging times of climate crisis faced by Pakistan, our forces have proved to be a symbol of resilience, credibility and strength. They have always put their lives in danger and selflessly provided immediate help to ensure the safety and security of the people of Pakistan. In short, utilizing all of their limited resources the military has left no stone unturned to help the fellow citizens. According to the data of Meteorological Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has received 44% more rains this year. Four tehsils of Swat district, Bahrain, KhawzaKhela, Matta and Mingora were directly affected by the flood.

The employment of the local population of Upper Swat depended on tourism or agriculture. The recent floods have also taken away these sources of income from them.

The area has witnessed daunting situation when a good number of tourist and locals were stranded, the local administration totally failed to rescue them.  In such dire situation, Pakistan Army remained the only hope for the stranded people in the area.

Four special army aviation helicopters during that period had rescued 110 stranded people from Khawazakhela to Kanju Cantt in Swat.

Dr. Fauzia who’s seven family members including women and children stranded in Swat told the Voice of KP, “My family was stuck in Swat floods during their tour, we were very worried as the local administration was unable to rescue them. But thanks to Pakistan Army all were rescued and evacuated in time.”

In order to help the flood victims, 7,522 Pakistan Army troops were deployed along with 50 boats, whereas 25 field medical camps were also established. As many as 25,000 patients were treated from different areas.

The military leadership under Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa showed concerns over these devastating floods when no one was even aware about the magnitude of this calamity. Pakistan Army had initiated rescue operations in Balochistan while the news about floods were nowhere on national media.

The Army chief visited the flooded areas ofSwat where he personally met the children, women, elderly and other people who were rescued from Kamrat, Kalam by helicopters of Army Aviation.

The rescued citizens specially women thanked the Pakistan Army while speaking to the Army chief and said, “It was the army who had reached out to the stranded families when none was in sight for help.”

The Army Chief personally supervised the relief operations of Pakistan Army at various places including Swat and Kalam.

The Pakistan Army Engineers restored Bahrain Bridge in Swat and opened it for all kinds of traffic on September 4. The flood-hit bridge in the town of Bahrain in Swat was reopened for traffic after the Pakistan Army worked day and night to restore it.

Earlier during his visit to the flood-hit areas in Swat, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa had said the road would be restored in six or seven days.

The people of Bahrain are happy that Pakistan Army engineers have restored that bridge which is one of the main passages frequented by people to commute, said Munir Khan who is a government teacher.

He said that people of Swat has great respect for Pakistan Army earlier for restoring peace and now their selfless relief work for flood victims.

In these challenging times of climate crisis faced by Pakistan, our forces have proved to be a symbol of resilience, credibility and strength. They have always put their lives in danger and selflessly provided immediate help to ensure the safety and security of the people of Pakistan. In short, utilizing all of their limited resources the military has left no stone unturned to help the fellow citizens.

Amna Noreen               

Afghanistan holds a significant place in Pakistan’s foreign policy in context of peace and stability, trade, people-to-people contacts, and regional connectivity. Pakistan’s foreign policy is based on non-interference which is a vital component of our vision of a “peaceful neighbourhood.”

Since last 50 years, Pakistan has been trying its best to forge deep-rooted friendly ties with Afghanistan because both counties are bound together through cultural, religious, and economic realities. When USSR occupied Afghanistan in 1979, it was Pakistan that provided shelter to more than five million refugees at one time and still 3.5 million Afghani citizens are part of Pakistani society. Pakistan is working with Afghanistan and international organization i.e. UNHCR and IOM for their safe, dignified, sustainable and voluntary return to their homeland under various UN strategies (SSAR).

Pakistan has always extended a helping hand to Afghan brethren despite historic diplomatic rift between the two counties dating back to Kabul’s decision to not to recognize Pakistan as sovereign state in 1947.

After 9/11, Pakistan once again assumed the role of developing partner of Afghanistan to rebuild the war-torn nation.

In pursuance of this policy, Islamabad became part of all international forums geared towards bringing peace, stability and development in Afghanistan.

Pakistan participated in meetings of Kabul process I and II. It attended RECCA, Moscow Format on Afghanistan, SCO Contract Group on Afghanistan, International Contract Group on Afghanistan, 6-Party Talks and Doha Peace process which eventually led to evacuation of foreign forces from Afghanistan.

Apart from these global initiatives, Pakistan took initiative and started many social, socio-economic projects in Afghanistan. Below is a brief snapshot of Pakistan’s contribution in Afghanistan’s development and prosperity.

Education and Training:

• Rahman Baba School, Kabul.
• Rahman Baba Hostel, Kabul.
• Allama Iqbal Faculty of Humanities, Kabul University.
• Sir Syed Post Graduate Faculty of Sciences, Nangarhar University.
• Liaqat Ali Khan Engineering Faculty, Balkh University.
• Six Primary Schools in various provinces.
• Two Vocational Training Institutes in Kabul city and Baghlan.
• 2×200 KVA Generator for Kabul University.
• 10 Buses for Kabul and Nangarhar Universities.
• 5 million Religious Text Books of Grade One to Grade Ten.
• 300,000 School Kits for 18 provinces.
• 3000 School Bags for Kabul, Jalalabad and Kandahar.
• 6000 Afghans Studying in Universities and Colleges in Pakistan.
• 500,000 Refugee Students enrolled in Schools in Pakistan.
• 2000 Fully Funded Scholarships for Higher Education in Pakistan.
• Trained 644 Afghan Police and Drug Control Officers, Doctors and Paramedical Staff, Diplomats, Judicial Officers, Customs Officers, Agriculturists and Bankers.

Healthcare:

• Nishtar Kidney Centre, Jalalabad.
• Four Hundred Bed Jinnah Hospital, Kabul.
• Naeb Aminullah Khan Hospital, Logar.
• 45 Ambulances for 12 Provinces.
• 14 Fully Equipped Mobile Medical Units.
• Medicines for Kabul, Jalalabad and Kandahar.
• A Week-Long Free Eye Camp in Jalalabad treated 4818 patients, Performed 357 Eye Surgeries and Distributed 4126 Eye Glasses.
• A single philanthropic Pakistani organization performed over 30,000 free eye surgeries on Afghan patients in 2008 alone.

Roads & Transport:

• 75 KM Torkham –Jalalabad Road.
• Additional Carriage Wayat Torkham –Jalalabad Road.
• 3 Internal Roads in Jalalabad.
• Rail Link to connect Chaman and Kandahar (Proposal under construction).

  Traffic Signals in Jalalabad city.

• Provision of Road Construction Machinery.
• 30 Mobile Hot Mixers.
• 200 Trucks.
• 100 Public Transport Buses.
• 2 Pickups, 4 Generators and Medicines for Wardak Province.

General Assistance:

• Television Transmitters for Kandahar.
• Digital Radio Link between Kabul and Peshawar.
• 28 Generators to Various Provinces.
• Security Equipment.
• 500 Computers for Different Provinces.
• Installed 15 deep well hand pumps in villages of Kabul.Rehabilitated Kabul Zoo and Deh Mazang Park.
• 50,000 Food Packages during the Month of Ramadan.
• 50,000 Metric Ton Wheat.
• 9600 Tents for the Internally Displaced People.
• 100 Afghans Assisted to Perform Hajj.
  
  

Trade between Pakistan & Afghanistan:

Pakistan is Afghanistan’s largest trade partner.

Historically both the countries have had good trade relations. According to Afghanistan Central Statics Organization (CSO), Ministry of Finance, during Afghanistan’sFY 2018, bilateral trade remained the highest and reached US$ 1,437 million followed by Afghanistan- Iran at US$ 1,284 million.

Pakistan Exports to Afghanistan was $833.42 Million during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

Meanwhile imports from Afghanistan, have increased to more than $700 million.

The two sides have the following institutional mechanisms in the domain of trade and economic cooperation:

1. Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Cooperation Authority (APTTCA).
2. Pak-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce & Industry.

• Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Business Council.

1. Joint Economic Commission (JEC).
2. Afghan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS).
3. Pakistani government has identified 44 places on the border where it plans to establish new crossings to further facilitate commercial activities as well as visitor movement.

Total Pakistani investment, since 2001, has crossed 1 billion USD. Pakistan, despite facing severe economic challenges, made these contributions to turn Afghanistan a peaceful and sustainable state. Pakistan wants Afghan refugees to go back to their homeland but not in a war-torn and deserted Afghanistan rather a peaceful Afghanistan where institutions would function properly to cater the needs of common Afghan citizen. Pakistan’s investment in Afghanistan and overall role for Afghan stabilization must be propagated across the world as Pakistan was taking these actions when the entire world abandoned Afghanistan despite making massive promises of national building process.  For example, when we juxtapose Pakistan’s role in Afghan development with that of Indian role in Afghanistan, a significant difference both in performance and intent becomes crystal clear.Indian claim of 3 billion USD investment in Afghanistan has nothing to showcase except a dam on River Kabul.

Pakistan and Afghanistan are two inseparable twins joined by historic, cultural, religious, and strategic ties. Pakistan believe in a peaceful Afghanistan as its own strategic interests are linked with peaceful Afghanistan like establishing a land-bridge to Central Asian ‘states’. A restive Pakistan-Afghanistan border will create new challenges for Pakistan’s own security. Pakistan will continue to play the role of harbinger of development and prosperity in Afghanistan despite all odds like it has so far. In Sha Allah!

Pak Economic Transformation: Political Stability is Need of the Hour

Shahzad Masood Roomi

IMF has recently released a report about Pakistan’s economic profile which presents a very bleak picture in short to midterm time period. According to report, there is a threat of mass social unrest due to inflation, slowdown in economic growth (from 6% in FY2021-22 to 2% for FY2022-23), and a pending threat of default.

The report has mentioned the ongoing political unrest in the country as the core reason behind ensuing economic crisis and fiscal hazard of future. According to academic sources, there is a direct correlation between political instability and economic meltdown. A sample study of 113 countries by Alberto Alesina, Roubini and Swagel defines political instability as the propensity of a government to collapse. That propensity or its semblance results in lower economic growth and per capita decrease in GDP. Another study by Yi Feng, covering 96 countries between 1960 and 1980, indicates that the stable democratic regimes are likely to post sustained economic growth compared to politically unstable regimes. Moreover; another empirically researched report about Jordan from Osama D Swaidan – employing two econometric techniques: ARDL model (OLS) and Kalman filter (ML), covering the period from 1967 to 2009 — indicates that political instability has a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth. Political unrest and instability is nothing new or unique to Pakistan. It is a phenomenon commonly known in many Asian, African and even some European countries. Only difference in Pakistan’s case is that political instability cycles are more frequent. This political instability often drags the state institutions in politics as well like judiciary. This unfortunate trend has affected the judiciary’s own performance. For example, higher judiciary remains in the news due to some high profile political cases affecting all pending cases pertaining to common citizens and delaying them the justice. Another unique feature of Pakistan’s political instability is mistrust between political players. A party, when losses elections, starts agitational politics which eventually leads to political polarization in the society. It has been observed that due to such politics, governments often hesitate to take strict but mandatory fiscal decisions for the state that consequently leads to economic meltdown. Though this is not the only reason behind our economic predicament, nevertheless it remains among major causes for our economic qualms. Economic instability has been felt all over the world as a result of the European energy crisis. Governments across the world are facing serious challenges as a result of rising inflation that does not seem to be “temporary.” Food prices are increasing and countries who rely on imported food items are faced with dire economic situation. In Sri Lanka, protesters toppled central government and ruling Rajapaksas had to left office in response to the country’s ongoing economic crisis. In Peru, protestors have taken to the streets and the government there was forced to declare a state of emergency.

Pakistan current cycle of political instability and consequent economic meltdown began almost simultaneously months ago when the sitting government was removed constitutionally but after being ousted, it refused to accept the results and launched agitational politics. Government instead of taking required monetary actions, waited for suitable political environment and this delay proved costly. Rupee lost its value to the tone of 25% against US dollar causing massive increase in local and foreign debt and ushering waves of price hikes particularly in energy products mainly imported by the country.

On the other hand, post COVID recovery is also an issue that too is a slow process even globally, particularly when OPEC countries have capped the oil production leading to its higher prices. Despite demands from the US, OPEC has not brought the production to pre-Covid time. This is a big problem financially for countries like Pakistan that are struggling to keep their export levels steady in face of higher energy prices in the country. Unfortunately, due to political instability, successive governments failed to adjust the fuel prices according to international markets, which created huge monetary problems for the state.  In order to keep their political capital intact, the previous government took popular decisions when the state was required to take the strict ones Consequently, the state’s economic security was compromised and current government had to agree on very harsh IMF conditions. But as political chaos continues, there is very little recovery in true sense. Pakistan’s economy remains precariously endangered particularly in terms of balance of payments.

There is a dire need that our political leaders should understand that without economic security, no state can remain truly sovereign and cannot avoid exploitation by the international financial institutions as and when needed. But for economic security, investors, both local and foreign must have enough confidence in any sitting government. For this to happen, there must be clearly defined and understood redlines in the politics and political narrative building by political entities. In case of failure of such realization, the political instability will continue to prognosticate bleak prospects for foreign as well as domestic investors.

Weak political culture and its relationship with a culture of political impunity from accountability due to weak democratic traditions in Pakistan remains the core structural problem of our political setup that is creating cycles of economic crises since last 75 years. The situation becomes more ominous when we consider the foreign factors contributing to internal economic challenges like the existence of panic in the commodity and financial markets; a global inflationary spiral, and rising food prices. All emerging markets are affected by the social impact of these external factors and Pakistan is no exception in this regard. Continuous political instability is only making things worse. At present, the stabilization attempts by Pakistan’s economic managers to get debt relief, concessional currency swaps and access to Chinese, Covid-19 related IMF funding quota have also been overshadowed by the current political instability.

There is no short fixes of an instrumental challenge like our economic crisis except that all stakeholders to take cognizance of the issue and play their part in restoring political stability to help national economic managers refocus on economy.

Indian Renewed Overtures in Afghanistan: Impact on Pakistan’s National Security

Pakistan has been in a state of perpetual internal war, fighting a ruthless high frequency, low intensity conflict against multiple proxies since last 2 decades. Various global powers are vigorously trying to exert their influence and control over Pakistan’s north western provinces. India, Pakistan’s archrival, is the staunch supporter of terrorist outfits inside Pakistan and her involvement in hostile activities is no longer a secret. Arrest of Kulbushan Yadev in 2016 exposed Indian modus operandi, how she has been using Pakistan’s neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran’s soil to stir ethnic and linguistic strife, stroking violent impunities, and supporting terror attacks against Pakistan’s infrastructure and its armed forces.

India compelled by drastically altered environment to leave Afghanistan, have lost US support with their withdrawal in August 2021. Indian intelligence officers and terror handlers virtually ran away from all their consulates in the dark hours of the night fearing the wrath of IEA; within Indian intelligence circles, IEA was believed to be supported by Pakistan.

India once again is now  preparing to renew its hostile overtures by returning to Afghanistan, to resume its covert operations against Pakistan.  It’s a separate debate, as to how India was able to recreate space for itself despite having run away from the scene in a haste; it may be due to internal political dynamics of interim Afghan Taliban government that provided a fresh impetus to India to open fresh diplomatic avenues acceptable to current Afghan leadership.

Just a year back, India was staunchly opposing Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and was ready to support former Northern Alliance Leader Ahmed Shah Massoud’s son against Taliban.

It is naive on part of members of Pakistan’s strategic fraternity, who tend to accept Indian claims of playing a constructive role in Afghan peace; don’t forget the Chanakyan maxim quoted at the beginning, uncloaking the true Indian mischievous mindset behind these claims of ushering in peace and development in Afghanistan.

To understand this perpetually hostile mindset, it would be prudent to revisit history briefly. In 1990s, India sided with Northern Alliance against Taliban, fueling the civil war, providing NA with gunship helicopters & ammunition. India also used media backed psy-ops to belittle and distort Pakistan’s historic role for Afghan refugees, using Northern Alliance. After 2001, when India got a chance to create a foothold in Afghanistan, she resumed these ops, funding and supporting various terror groups in erstwhile FATA.

Interesting to note here is that as soon as some chances of potential disagreements (though reconcilable) between Islamabad& IEA surfaced, mischievous leadership of India once again jumped back to grab the opportunity with their dirty tricks to use Afghan soil against Pakistan. India has many unfinished projects in Pakistan like sabotaging CPEC; string insurgency in Balochistan is among the top priorities of Indian RAW.

On September 30, 2013, India’s defense analyst, Dr. Amarjit Singh, in his long article “How to make Proxy War succeed in Balochistan” in Indian Defense Review, referring to uprisings in different countries, suggested that the Indian government should start a proxy war in Balochistan. Fact remains that India had already launched this insurgency inside Pakistan after 2005; the unrest in Balochistan continues and Pakistan security forces continue to fight against this Indian backed menace.

Indian covert intervention in Pakistan’s internal affairs not only brought to the world view by Islamabad alone, various international analysts also pointed out the same multiple times. For example, on April 2, 2014, Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi, an expert on Southeast Asian Affairs and former senior Saudi diplomat, in his article “Balochistan and the Unity of Pakistan” published in Saudi Arabia’s three-decade-old English newspaper “Saudi Gazette” exposed Indian primary role in establishing relations between BLA and foreign powers including the United States. According to Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi, a significant tribal leader tried to raise the issue of Balochistan in the International Court of Justice some time back on the promise of 20 million US dollars from a neighboring country of Pakistan.

Not long ago, the former commander of US forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, in a report presented to the Congress, revealed the fact that the growing Indian influence in this region ofSouth Asia would lead to regional instability in the future.

In this historical backdrop, there is no doubt that fresh Indian overtures in Afghanistan have absolutely nothing to do with peace and stability in Afghanistan or the region as a whole. It’s a ploy to get loose foothold in Pakistan’s backyard so as to run proxies like TTP/BLA to foster perpetual instability in Pakistan. Other than that, India has virtually no sincere desire or direct positive role in Afghanistan’s rebuild and rehabilitation phase as it doesn’t share any land border as Pakistan does. All humanitarian aid and trade is only possible via Pakistan. Previous 20 years of Indian involvement in Afghanistan in the garb of development partner also speak volumes about New Delhi’s true latent intentions.  India tried to manage Kabul River by building dam on it; an important tributary of Indus river system in Pakistan, which India wants to damage in her hydrological war against Pakistan. Ideally Kabul River should be co-managed by Afghanistan and Pakistan as it passes through both the countries.

Indian intelligentsia is advising New Delhi to respond to Mullah Yaqoob’s appeal of completion of development projects in Afghanistan by linking it with counter-terrorism cooperation from IEA. It is vividly obvious that the entire thrust of Indian diplomatic overreach to Kabul is based on the premise of getting a foothold in Pakistan’s backyard like India enjoyed till Aug 2021 when the US forces left Kabul forcing Indians to flee from their consulates (read training/launch pads for TTP and BLA). Indian planned ingress in Afghanistan in guise of development projects would actually be the beginning of a new covert war against Pakistan. It’s also notice worthy that Pakistan has already handed over a dossier at UN about Indian interference in Balochistan and covert / overt support to insurgents using Afghan soil through her over a dozen consulates located across Pak-Afghan border.

This however does not mean that Pakistan has any objection over India-Afghanistan bilateral relations and opening of her embassy in Kabul, but it will certainly raise questions on the rationality behind opening of half a dozen consulates across Pakistan border considering past mischievous conduct of India.

Pakistan at this turn of events certainly needs fresh impetus in its diplomacy with Afghan interim  government. Most importantly, Islamabad must persuade TTA/IEA to study the Indian role during previous two decades. As Indian grand strategy has not changed, there is no reason to believe that once India enters in Afghanistan again, it will follow any different path. India fears TTA/IEA and hence wants to be on their good side, but at the same time will not hesitate to target Pakistan, as it did in the past.­

Salman Ahmad

On 2 Aug 2022, The Pakistani nation was mourning the martyrdom of six Pak Army officials including Lieutenant General Sarfaraz Ali (Commander XII Corps) in a military helicopter crash during a flood relief operation in Lasbela, Balochistan. Amid the consolation messages, homage and prayers for the departed souls on social media (SM); a Twitter user Caryn E. Gifford (@CarynEGifford), speculated that one of the US’s tactical drones accidentally targeted the Pakistan Army helicopter resulting in multiple fatalities.  The account then had mere two followers who claimed to be the level-II Policy advisor of US ambassador to Pakistan David Blome.

Several Journalists and Open-Source investigators labelled the account as impersonated, still, followers of the account jumped to over 700 in a matter of hours and the speculation spread like wildfire creating and augmenting a conspiracy theory. Upon investigation; it was revealed that the account deleted his previous tweets consisting of pro-India narratives, promotion of India-based #hashtags and tweets in Roman Urdu. These pieces of evidence were enough to establish the origin and purpose of the account.

Exploiting the grief-stricken moment in Pakistan, several other accounts, mostly with minimal followers, also claimed that a faction of Baloch rebels targeted the helicopter. The narrative was not only amplified by impersonated or fake accounts but Indian mainstream media also magnified this Fake News.

Thousands of such impersonated accounts persist within Pakistan cyberspace, especially on Twitter and Facebook, for the sole purpose of a smear campaign against Pakistan. According to Facebook, it disabled more than 1.3 billion fake accounts only during the last quarter of 2020.

The phenomenon of SM impersonation for propaganda, fake news and mis/ disinformation campaigns is not limited to foreign hostile actors; political parties, Sub-nationalist elements and militant organizations having their SM arms also apply the same tactic for the vilification of rival parties, groups and, especially, Pakistani armed forces. These elements not only try to damage the overall image of Pakistan as a country but also cause chaos within the populace, either studiously or inadvertently.

Research by several OSINT experts and organizations i.e., Project Baseerat and several other independent SM analysts notes that an enormous number of fake accounts affiliated with hostile countries like India and Afghanistan were used for promoting conspiracies and propaganda against Pakistan. Rackets and coordinated networks, mainly backed by Indian nationals and news organizations, have been unearthed not only by local but international organizations.

Indian Chronicles: deep dive into a 15-year operation targeting the EU and UN to serve Indian interests

Recently; media and communication researchers suggested a massive increase in the use of fake accounts in Pakistan’s cyberspace. These accounts manipulate and frame day-to-day happenings to thwart democratic debates and transfigure public sentiments into hate speech, political unrest and violence, aimed at creating chaos and political instability in Pakistan. The most discernible actors among these hidden enemies are Indian-backed anarchists, impersonated SM activists and SM arms of political organizations. Several Twitter campaigns launched by Indians & Afghans have been recently identified including #CivilWarInPakistan (April 2021) & #SanctionPakistan (Aug 2021) participated by Pakistani disgruntled elements in and outside the country.

After the regime change in Afghanistan in Aug last year; Digital Media Wing Pakistan unearthed a coordinated disinformation and propaganda campaign by Indians and Afghans to sabotage the Afghan peace process and to put the blame on Pakistan for the mistakes made in Afghanistan during the last two decades.  In a joint press conference (11 Aug 2021), the then National Security Advisor Moeed Yousaf informed that SM Accounts operated by Afghans and Indians launched an SM campaign discrediting Pakistan and its Armed forces. The propagandist also targeted China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provoked Baloch and Pashtun separatists, fueled Sub-nationalist sentiments and tried to build a narrative of keeping Pakistan within the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). These SM campaigns were mostly boosted through Bots and augmented by Afghan and disgruntled elements in Pakistan.

India not only backs individuals and shadow organizations for running venomous campaigns against Pakistan but, as a state, is also involved in the manipulation of SM platforms. On Aug 2022; former Twitter security chief Piter Zatko exposed the Indian government’s hostile design while lodging a formal complaint to the American authorities. Zatko believed that the Indian government had forced Twitter Inc. to put one of its agents on payroll with access to sensitive users’ information. The complaint statement said that several Kashmiri activists and media person’s accounts remained blocked due to India’s frivolous legal objections. Pakistan has already expressed serious concerns over the Indian government’s attempt to infiltrate the security system of the SM giant.

The recent political unrest in Pakistan was also triggered by anonymous SM accounts operated by individuals from abroad and paid bots targeting the local population. According to the head of Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), 400 impersonated accounts are being reported daily by the body to the concerned SM platforms. Most of these accounts are used in disinformation campaigns and for augmenting negative propaganda against state institutions. Pakistani SM users are under the influence of organized and well-coordinated SM campaigns (mainly Twitter trends) and local users unaware of the nefarious designs of hostile actors become part of these campaigns causing more damage to national cohesion and political stability.

Combating SM impersonation, Fake News, Misinformation and negative Propaganda emerged as a primary challenge, not only for Pakistan but modern democracies and developed nations also face the same challenge struggling for finding ways to cope with the trend on SM platforms and mainstream media as well. The United States and several other countries undertook several laws and regulations considering SM impersonation as a crime. Pakistan has also enacted such laws, but the real challenge is unmasking the culprits behind these fake accounts.

One way forward is the use of Open-Sources investigation techniques but its scope is very limited owing to the privacy policies of SM giants. It also requires highly technical skills and qualifications in the field of information security. Another way to combat impersonation is the submission of identity documents as a prerequisite by the platforms which can effectively prevent the creation of fake accounts. But business interests and alluring maximum users for the same interest of the platforms protect the real identity of the impersonators. Another more effective way to cope the fake accounts is mass reporting against Fake accounts by SM users and regulators including Pakistan Telecommunication Authority PTA.

Muhammad Raza Shah

Formally established in 2007, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) remained a largest and most active militant organization in Pakistan. Members of this ethno-centric armed group are mostly Pashtuns belonging to former FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) region of Pakistan. The tribal belt of Pakistan provided recruitment and operational leverage to the TTP. The people living in the tribal area joined TTP due to two factors i.e., the insecure border area of the tribal district with Afghanistan and the concentration of local and migrant Pashtuns from western neighboring country. Along with security these factors also provided TTP an opportunity of earning. The banned outfit exploits the locals and tempted them to join their organization.

Impact of offensives against TTP

After 2001, Pakistan Army conducted more than three dozen operations in FATA, most of them in North and South Waziristan, as thousands of militants had entered these two districts in search of refuge after 9/11. Military operations like Zarb-e-Azb and Rah-e-Najat in this semi-autonomous region were the last offensive operations by Pakistan Army in the region. Although, military operations in Pakistan’s tribal areas succeeded in eliminating TTP but a major consequence of the use of force came in the form of fueling ethno-political grievances among the local population of FATA against Pakistani government and its security forces.

Change in strategy

After restoring the state’s writ, the government announced merging FATA with KP in 2015 abolishing the independent status of FATA and to introduce administrative and economic reforms. However, this reform process remained slow-paced and other measures including border fencing with Afghanistan have stopped cross-border economic activities and hampered the daily travel of local people consequently affecting lives of the populace. Although, these measures were intended to bring FATA into the mainstream with the rest of Pakistan, but resulted in local grievances against the state. In the past, the TTP has used similar local issues for fund raising and recruitment.

The Redesigned Security Strategy

The “National Action Plan”(formulated in 2014) was intended for aggressive actions and institutional coordination to counter terrorism and violent extremism. However, in the revived National Security Policy of the country, effective till 2026, intelligence operations against all terrorist groups, interdiction of financial sponsorship of terrorism, elimination of poverty, removing instability and structural deficiencies in areas where terrorists recruit for their groups will be undertaken. According to the new policy, a four-point strategy will be adopted to deal with the separatist elements. First; pro-negotiation groups will be separated from the non-negotiable groups, second; the recruitment or involvement of these groups will be eliminated, third; curbing financial support of the terrorists and fourth; targeted socio-economic policieswill be formed to redress the grievances of common people of backward areas to stop their exploitation at the hands of miscreants.

Negotiations with TTP: A Way forward

Pakistan has been negotiating with the TTP for quite some time to make them surrender and stop violence against the state of Pakistan. The TTP has announced a ceasefire to show its seriousness towards the peace process. For the first time since US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the government of Pakistan has pronounced negotiating with a few groups involved in terrorism. A government-led committee consist of civilian and military representatives is negotiating with TTP. However,the final decision will be made with the guidance, consensus and approval of the Parliament in the light of the Constitution of Republic of Pakistan.

Why To Negotiate with Terrorists?

Though, military operations have proved to be potent in wiping out terrorists, but it is still not a lasting solution. Victory requires the use of multi-pronged strategy and the use of force is only one tool in war against terrorism. All available remedies must be utilizedfor complete success. Pakistan has used its military power for years, but the endless conflict caused exhaustion on both physical and psychological level. Since 2001, thousands of soldiers, paramilitary forces and police officers have been martyred in more than 19,000 terrorist attacks. Perhaps now is the time to give peace a chance through negotiations. Such negotiations have been successful in the past as well. In between Feb 2016 and Dec 2017, around 2,000 armed militants, including dozens of key commanders, abandoned violence and surrendered to state in various parts of Balochistan. This was a major step towards mainstreaming the youth who were embroiled in violence against the state and citizens.

Favorable environment for negotiations

Given the present regional and international geo-political situations, itis a good time to try and give peace a chance. After Afghan Taliban took over Afghanistan, they have assured Pakistan of not allowing their soil to be used by TTP for attacks against Pakistan. For the past 15 years, no such assurance has ever come from the Afghan government, nor has any action been taken against the TTP, which enjoyed immense support and sanctuaries along the other side of the border. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the TTP militants may not enjoy the same support. Based on firm assurances from the Afghan Taliban, the situation appears to be in Pakistan’s favor, which bodes well for peace talks. Otherwise, TTP will remain in Afghanistan and any hostile foreign intelligence agency can use them against Pakistan.

Next Step

After years of economic upheaval, instability and crisis Pakistan needs to breathe some peace so that it can focus on the looming economic crisis and emerging geo-political challenges. Peace negotiations are an important part of the process of sustainable peace and stability. For any progress to be made, the political and military leadership need to work together to completely defeat militancy in Pakistan. No state can afford to have a parallel system or a permanent militant organization. A comprehensive strategy that combines political and military means to address the problem is the need of the hour.