Indian Renewed Overtures in Afghanistan: Impact on Pakistan’s National Security
Pakistan has been in a state of perpetual internal war, fighting a ruthless high frequency, low intensity conflict against multiple proxies since last 2 decades. Various global powers are vigorously trying to exert their influence and control over Pakistan’s north western provinces. India, Pakistan’s archrival, is the staunch supporter of terrorist outfits inside Pakistan and her involvement in hostile activities is no longer a secret. Arrest of Kulbushan Yadev in 2016 exposed Indian modus operandi, how she has been using Pakistan’s neighboring countries Afghanistan and Iran’s soil to stir ethnic and linguistic strife, stroking violent impunities, and supporting terror attacks against Pakistan’s infrastructure and its armed forces.
India compelled by drastically altered environment to leave Afghanistan, have lost US support with their withdrawal in August 2021. Indian intelligence officers 
and terror handlers virtually ran away from all their consulates in the dark hours of the night fearing the wrath of IEA; within Indian intelligence circles, IEA was believed to be supported by Pakistan.
India once again is now preparing to renew its hostile overtures by returning to Afghanistan, to resume its covert operations against Pakistan. It’s a separate debate, as to how India was able to recreate space for itself despite having run away from the scene in a haste; it may be due to internal political dynamics of interim Afghan Taliban government that provided a fresh impetus to India to open fresh diplomatic avenues acceptable to current Afghan leadership.
Just a year back, India was staunchly opposing Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and was ready to support former Northern Alliance Leader Ahmed Shah Massoud’s son against Taliban.
It is naive on part of members of Pakistan’s strategic fraternity, who tend to accept Indian claims of playing a constructive role in Afghan peace; don’t forget the Chanakyan maxim quoted at the beginning, uncloaking the true Indian mischievous mindset behind these claims of ushering in peace and development in Afghanistan.
To understand this perpetually hostile mindset, it would be prudent to revisit history briefly. In 1990s, India sided with Northern Alliance against Taliban, fueling the civil war, providing NA with gunship helicopters & ammunition. India also used media backed psy-ops to belittle and distort Pakistan’s historic role for Afghan refugees, using Northern Alliance. After 2001, when India got a chance to create a foothold in Afghanistan, she resumed these ops, funding and supporting various terror groups in erstwhile FATA.
Interesting to note here is that as soon as some chances of potential disagreements (though reconcilable) between Islamabad& IEA surfaced, mischievous leadership of India once again jumped back to grab the opportunity with their dirty tricks to use Afghan soil against Pakistan. India has many unfinished projects in Pakistan like sabotaging CPEC; string insurgency in Balochistan is among the top priorities of Indian RAW.
On September 30, 2013, India’s defense analyst, Dr. Amarjit Singh, in his long article “How to make Proxy War succeed in Balochistan” in Indian Defense Review, referring to uprisings in different countries, suggested that the Indian government should start a proxy war in Balochistan. Fact remains that India had already launched this insurgency inside Pakistan after 2005; the unrest in Balochistan continues and Pakistan security forces continue to fight against this Indian backed menace.
Indian covert intervention in Pakistan’s internal affairs not only brought to the world view by Islamabad alone, various international analysts also pointed out the same multiple times. For example, on April 2, 2014, Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi, an expert on Southeast Asian Affairs and former senior Saudi diplomat, in his article “Balochistan and the Unity of Pakistan” published in Saudi Arabia’s three-decade-old English newspaper “Saudi Gazette” exposed Indian primary role in establishing relations between BLA and foreign powers including the United States. According to Dr. Ali Al-Ghamdi, a significant tribal leader tried to raise the issue of Balochistan in the International Court of Justice some time back on the promise of 20 million US dollars from a neighboring country of Pakistan.
Not long ago, the former commander of US forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, in a report presented to the Congress, revealed the fact that the growing Indian influence in this region ofSouth Asia would lead to regional instability in the future.
In this historical backdrop, there is no doubt that fresh Indian overtures in Afghanistan have absolutely nothing to do with peace and stability in Afghanistan or the region as a whole. It’s a ploy to get loose foothold in Pakistan’s backyard so as to run proxies like TTP/BLA to foster perpetual instability in Pakistan. Other than that, India has virtually no sincere desire or direct positive role in Afghanistan’s rebuild and rehabilitation phase as it doesn’t share any land border as Pakistan does. All humanitarian aid and trade is only possible via Pakistan. Previous 20 years of Indian involvement in Afghanistan in the garb of development partner also speak volumes about New Delhi’s true latent intentions. India tried to manage Kabul River by building dam on it; an important tributary of Indus river system in Pakistan, which India wants to damage in her hydrological war against Pakistan. Ideally Kabul River should be co-managed by Afghanistan and Pakistan as it passes through both the countries.
Indian intelligentsia is advising New Delhi to respond to Mullah Yaqoob’s appeal of completion of development projects in Afghanistan by linking it with counter-terrorism cooperation from IEA. It is vividly obvious that the entire thrust of Indian diplomatic overreach to Kabul is based on the premise of getting a foothold in Pakistan’s backyard like India enjoyed till Aug 2021 when the US forces left Kabul forcing Indians to flee from their consulates (read training/launch pads for TTP and BLA). Indian planned ingress in Afghanistan in guise of development projects would actually be the beginning of a new covert war against Pakistan. It’s also notice worthy that Pakistan has already handed over a dossier at UN about Indian interference in Balochistan and covert / overt support to insurgents using Afghan soil through her over a dozen consulates located across Pak-Afghan border.
This however does not mean that Pakistan has any objection over India-Afghanistan bilateral relations and opening of her embassy in Kabul, but it will certainly raise questions on the rationality behind opening of half a dozen consulates across Pakistan border considering past mischievous conduct of India.
Pakistan at this turn of events certainly needs fresh impetus in its diplomacy with Afghan interim government. Most importantly, Islamabad must persuade TTA/IEA to study the Indian role during previous two decades. As Indian grand strategy has not changed, there is no reason to believe that once India enters in Afghanistan again, it will follow any different path. India fears TTA/IEA and hence wants to be on their good side, but at the same time will not hesitate to target Pakistan, as it did in the past.
