Daily Archives: April 18, 2023

Pakistan Should Break the Cycle of Political Instability for Economic Prosperity

Kashif Ahmad

Political and economic stability are prerequisites for the functioning of any state but both the variables are interdependent each affecting the other. Studies in the past have suggested a direct correlation of political instability with the economic meltdown that results in the lower economic growth and per-capita GDP decrease. On the other hand, stable democracies are more likely to sustain economic deterioration as compared to the unstable regimes.

            Pakistan is currently passing through the unprecedented political crisis that consequently led the country to significant economic instability. While political instability is not the only factor to Pakistan economic challenges, it remains a significant contributing factor.

            If we look at the current attitude and performance of the political elites in the country, they are busy in forwarding their political agenda instead of putting the country in order. The country’s largest political party, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), currently in opposition has wreaked chaos. On the other hand, the incumbent government also seems paralyzed, as it could not put forward obvious roadmap to resolve the grave economic problems of the country.

            While in power, the PTI government prioritized popular decisions overlooking the necessary and strict ones to maintain their political capital compromising the state’s economic security. However, Pakistan’s current political turmoil began after the removal of PTI from power in the center through a vote of no confidence in April 2022. The party refused to accept the results of that constitutional process and started agitational politics and grabbed the judiciary in to the created chaos. Due to the intervention of the judiciary, the PML N-led coalition government came in to power. But this government also waited for the favorable political environment instead of taking immediate and necessary monitory actions that led to the costly delays. The consequent worst depreciation of Pakistani Rupee against US Doller led to the significant increase in local and foreign debt and skyrocketing increase in the prices of imported energy products.

            Political and economic instability are not unique to Pakistan and these are also common in many countries across the globe. However, in Pakistan, the cycles of instability are more frequent that often led to the dragging of state institutions in to the politics. Moreover, mistrust among the political elites and propaganda led the country to the worst political polarization with the parties resorting to agitational politics. This also resulted in current government’s hesitation to take necessary fiscal decisions, contributing to economic meltdowns.

            Despite the prolonged negotiation process and implementing numerous tough conditions of International Monitory Fund (IMF), the current government is still unable to obtained and financial relief from the global financial institution.

            The recent IMF report regarding Pakistan economy paints a grim picture of the country in terms of short to medium term inflation, slowdown in economic growth and threat to default leading to the possibility of social unrest on the gross-root level in the country. IMF’s report referred to the current economic instability as the root-cause behind the economic crisis and impending fiscal hazards.

            Economic security is a must for the sovereignty of any state. Our political leadership have to understand the fact the without economic security, Pakistan has became vulnerable and can be exploited by the global financial institutions. As a result, sovereignty of the country will be compromised. For the attainment of economic security, a favorable environment should be created for the investors. But the investors need confidence over the government which can achieve through political stability. Failure in this aspect can lead to further economic and political dilapidation.

            Poor political structure and political impunity as a core structural problem has contributed to the economic crisis throughout Pakistan history. The situation aggravated due to several other external factors including panic in commodity and financial markets, global inflationary spiral and rising food prices that impacted all the markets, including Pakistan. However, political instability made the situation worse in Pakistan overshadowing the efforts of economic policy makers.

            If the economy of the country continues worsening unabated, it may have detrimental impacts over the country’s economic and long-term development prospects. To secure future of the people and lead the country toward economic prosperity all the stakeholders require to set together and take concrete steps.

            To ensure economic prosperity and long-term growth potential, Pakistan must work for political stability and peace in the coming days. Unless all the stakeholders create a consensus and make mutual efforts, the country will remain in chaos.   Pakistani political elites are well aware of the remedy to the economic stability, i.e., political stability, but they are apparently heading the opposite direction compromising the integrity, prestige and sovereignty of the state.

National Policy and Response to the Terrorism Threat

        Pakistan’s national policy towards terrorism is based on a comprehensive approach that includes military operations, intelligence-led counterterrorism operations, and socio-economic development initiatives in the affected areas. Pakistan has been the victim of terrorism for many years and has suffered a great deal in terms of human lives and economic losses.

           Since 2014, almost all the terrorism in Pakistan has been imported from Afghanistan in which local sleeper cells have been providing logistical support. Entire planning and funding process was and still is being controlled from Afghanistan. It was hoped that the situation would improve once extra regional forces leave Afghanistan but as has been witnessed since August 2021, cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan has not only intensified but new dynamics have been added to it, turning the whole security paradigm much more complex.

          Its a fact that Taliban took over Kabul under a negotiated agreement with the US where Taliban government was declared Interim Afghan Government (IAG) that promised to global community that Afghan soil will not be used against any of its neighbors. This pledge by IEA is yet to be  fulfilled, as Pakistan continues to be the victim of cross-border provocative attacks by both TTP and Afghan forces, apparently under tacit approval of IEA.

            A cursory look at the chronology of events transpired on Pakistan-Afghanistan border exposes how violence along this border has increased after IEA took over Afghanistan.

• On 11th Nov 2022, Two Afghan militants opened fire on Pakistani troops at the Friendship Gate (FSG) at Chaman border, resulting in the martyrdom of one soldier while injuring 2 others.
• On 20th Nov 2022, in cross-border firing in Kharlachi area of Kurram by Afghan Forces; mortar raids by IAG troops injured eight persons including Two children and Three FC personnel.
• Chaman border crossing was closed by Pakistani authorities after the attacks but were reopened shortly afterwards, on 22nd Nov 2022, due to humanitarian needs of Afghan people. There were patients who had come to Pakistan for treatment. Pakistani authorities reopened the Chaman border, despite the fact that IAG had not complied with Islamabad’s demand to apprehend the perpetrators.
• On 11th Dec 2022, in the deadliest attack on civilian population from IEA forces left Six people killed while around 60 injured on Pakistani side. This provocation invited strong Pakistani response as well.
• On 15th Dec 2022, in second “indiscriminate” incident within a week, cross-border artillery shelling by Taliban forces on civilian population killed one person and wounded 15 others on Pakistani side. This attack was timed with the visit of US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Michael Kurilla who also visited Torkham (Pak-Afg border) where the visiting delegation was briefed by Pakistani authorities on counterterrorism and border management mechanisms in place along the border. This adds to credence to the idea that IEA was actually looking to internationalize historic disagreement between Islamabad and Kabul on demarcation of Pak-Afghan international border that was actually done after an agreement by British Indian government with then Kabul regime in 19th century.
• On Jan 2, 2023, it was reported that The US budget for 2023 includes $15 million for improving security along the Pakistan-Afghan border and an unspecified amount of funds to promote gender equality in Pakistan
• On Feb 12th 2023, Pakistani security forces eliminated 12 TTP militants who had crossed into Pakistan from Afghanistan.
• On Feb 20th 2023, Pakistani border guards and Afghan Taliban forces traded cross-border fire. No reports of any casualty though it led to closure of Torkham border.

            The reasons of growing terrorist attacks on Pakistan from Afghan soil are complex and multifaceted. Some of the contributing factors are:

• The main reason is the presence of various terrorist groups and militant organizations in Afghanistan, which have used the country as a safe haven to plan, train, and launch attacks against Pakistan. These groups include the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), among others. Some militant groups have historical and cultural ties to Afghanistan, which have motivated them to target Pakistan.
• The absence of effective governance in Afghanistan: The lack of effective governance      in Afghanistan has created a vacuum that has been exploited by militant groups to establish themselves and launch attacks against Pakistan.
• Support from external powers: Some militant groups have received support from external powers that seek to destabilize the region for their own strategic interests.
• Ideological and sectarian differences: Some terrorist groups have ideological and sectarian differences with the Pakistani state, which they seek to exploit through violence.

            Pakistan has been adversely affected by terrorism emanating from Afghanistan for  many decades now; significant impacts include:

• Loss of human lives: Terrorist attacks from Afghanistan have resulted in loss of many innocent lives in Pakistan, including civilians and security forces personnel.
• Economic losses: Terrorism from Afghanistan has also had a negative impact on Pakistan’s economy, with businesses and industries suffering from the effects of terrorism and instability.
• Destabilization of the region: Terrorism from Afghanistan has contributed to the overall instability of the region, with the potential to spill over into neighboring countries.
• Strained relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan: The cross-border movement of terrorists has further strained the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with accusations and counter-accusations of support for militant groups.

            Not only IEA government failed to curtail TTP activities, but it seems to have become part of the problem now. After nonstop string of security related incidents on the border, a high level Pakistani delegation including DG ISI and Defense Minister visited Kabul and held meeting with acting Afghan deputy prime minister, Mullah Abdul Ghani Bradar on Feb 22nd 2023.

            Pakistan conveyed a stern message to Kabul about Islamabad’s concerns over actions of IEA at Pak-Afghan border and failure of Kabul regime in fulfilling its promise of not letting anyone use its soil against any neighboring country. Notwithstanding, Pakistan has always demonstrated its support for IEA government on international forums. For instance, Pakistan abstained from voting on a UNGA resolution that expressed deep concern over the volatility in Afghanistan since the 2021 takeover. While Pakistan is supporting IEA government in UN, it is also fulfilling its own international commitment against terrorism with utmost sincerity.

            Taliban bear the primary responsibility for Afghanistan’s security, they must be professionalized in their primary tasks. It will help not only in border management but also in domestic law and order situation across Afghanistan.  Pakistan has been extending its full and unilateral support to the IAG in order to help it stand on its feet. This is because IAG must not lose due to security negligence/lapses. If requested, Pakistan can take into confidence international community to train IAG forces in border management and other security disciplines.

            Pakistan’s response to recent terrorism has been swift and decisive. There is a growing understanding in Pakistan’s strategic community now that Pakistan is facing a renewed threat of terrorism since the return of Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan in August 2021.  This was contrary to the expectations of Pakistan, which thought a friendly government in the neighboring country would address its security concerns. The country’s security forces have conducted numerous counter terrorism operations, resulting in the killing and capture of many terrorists. Pakistan has also worked closely with other countries, including the United States, to combat terrorism through intelligence sharing and joint operations.

            Recently held two-day counterterrorism dialogue between the US and Pakistan focused on ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the fight against terrorism. Both countries emphasized the need for continued cooperation and intelligence sharing to combat terrorism and enhance regional security. The dialogue also discussed ways to improve Pakistan’s capacity to fight terrorism and promote socio-economic development in the affected areas.

            Overall, Pakistan has made significant progress in its fight against terrorism over the years, and its partnership with the United States and other countries is crucial in this regard. The two-day counterterrorism dialogue between the US and Pakistan was a positive step in strengthening bilateral cooperation and enhancing regional security.

            Pakistan and Afghanistan share a long and porous border, and their security and stability are closely interlinked. There have been accusations that some elements of the Afghan Taliban have been complacent, overlooking the terrorist activities by TTP against Pakistan. Recent high level Pakistani delegation to Afghanistan carried a very pragmatic roadmap for future. Some of the key areas include:

• Strengthening bilateral ties: The visit aimed at improving bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly in the area of security and defence.· Candid discussion over security issues of mutual concern, including terrorism, insurgency, and border management
• Coordinating efforts against terrorism: The delegation emphasized the need for coordinated efforts between Pakistan and Afghanistan to curb terrorism and insurgency, including measures to prevent the use of Afghan soil against Pakistan
• Engaging with the Afghan Taliban: The delegation engaged with the Afghan Taliban leadership to encourage them to curb terrorism against Pakistan and cooperate in ensuring peace and stability in the region.

Regional peace and stability is a shared responsibility of all the countries. Afghanistan has been a strategic black-hole in the region halting its progress and interconnectivity. But at the same time, Pakistan cannot leave Afghanistan alone as both countries are conjoined twins sharing historic cultural, economic, and social ties. Pakistan will be the biggest beneficiary of peace in Afghanistan. Afghan people and IAG government must understand and respect Pakistan’s security concerns related to TTP and border management issues.

In order to address terrorism from Afghanistan, it is important to have a comprehensive approach that includes both military and non-military measures. This includes working with the Afghan government to establish effective governance and security in the country, disrupting the financing and support networks of militant groups, and enhancing border management and intelligence cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan.