The Impact of Climate Change on National Economy: A Focus on Agriculture Sector
Farazana Shah
Last year Pakistan witnessed catastrophic rain, caused by climate change that has swamped vast portions of the country badly damaging the infrastructure and hitting the economy massively.
The devastating floods in Pakistan during year 2022 have cost the country’s wobbling economy roughly USD 18 billion, wiping away more than 8 million acres of crops and displacing more than 33 million people.
Pakistan constantly ranks in the top 10 countries at risk of intense long-term impact of climate change and within Pakistan, KP remains the most dangerous region. The province has experienced adverse climate change effects both in summer and winter seasons as flash floods and more volatile and extreme temperature ranges have become normal phenomenon now.
Under this phenomenon, the events of last 18 to 24 months must be suffice. The climate change effects have become more evident over the past couple of years including forest fires due to severe heat wave that destroyed much of the forest cover in the province. Flash flooding in 2022 caused massive damage to infrastructure in the province as there were no forest in many places that could have slowed down water’s pace and could have certainly stopped rocks and stones that came along with water during these flash floods. To make the matters worse, all studies are pointing the possibilities of similar climate behavior for a longer period of time i.e., many years or decades!
The impact of these climate changes on the economy of the province has been witnessed in the agriculture sector that has suffered the most due to sudden change in climate in the province like rest of the country.
In this regard, the findings in The Economic Survey of Pakistan 2020 sketched a miserable picture about climate change challenges and state’s ability to counter it. The survey quoted international studies saying Pakistan has lost 0.53pc per unit GDP, suffered economic losses worth $3.8 billion and witnessed 152 extreme weather events from 1999 to 2018.
Similarly, German Watch, a Berlin based media outlet, has ranked Pakistan globally in the top 10 countries most affected by climate change in the past 20 years owing to its geographical location. Asian Development Bank has assessed that, in Pakistan, the socioeconomic costs of environmental degradation were considerable with climate adaptation needs ranging between $7 billion and $14 billion per year. Out of these amounts, Pakistan suffered economic losses worth $3.8bn and witnessed 152 extreme weather events from 1999 to 2018 alone. According to the Economic Survey, studies were undertaken using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model that showed that wheat production in the arid areas of Pakistan was likely to suffer to the tune of 17pc.
Regarding regional change in annual temperature, international studies have found two critical aspects in change of temperature due to climate changes in Pakistan.
(I). the temperature increase in both summer and winter are higher in northern than southern Pakistan, and
(ii). the temperature increases in both regions are higher in winter than summer.
When we combine both these points, the outcome is ominous one. Pakistan’s northern areas temperature is on the rise and winter seasons are becoming hotter and shorter. According to some estimates, the avg. temperature change in Pakistan between now and 2080 would be +4.3 degree Celsius. It simply means if a city today experiences a temperature of 45 degree in June, the same city during the same month would have avg temperature around 49~50 degree. These estimates are very disturbing in the long run as this rise in temperature over the coming decades are going to expediate the melting of glaciers in the Northern Pakistan. These glaciers are lifeline of 250 million Pakistanis.
Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) conducted another significant study that computed temperature and precipitation change for different regions of Pakistan from 2011 to 2050. This report further corroborated above mentioned threats. According to this report by PMD, the climate models show a maximum rise in the northern areas of Pakistan, central and south Punjab, and lower parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa characterized by mountainous northern parts and semi-arid plains in southern part are under the hazard of sever water flood erosion and water deficiency and drought respectively.
Agriculture in KP already faced with many challenges from low productivity to under developed markets and now the adverse effects of climate change has made all the other challenges look very small. After the devastation of current year’s floods, there has been serious economic losses to farmers of different crops. The dates growers suffered the most with a financial loss of Rs 2,754.05 million; followed by vegetable farmers losing Rs 145.28 million; pulses at Rs 50.86 million; tobacco agriculturists in Swabi and Charade recording losses of Rs 22.70 million; rice farmers at Rs 11.81 million; and those who maintain orchards suffered financial losses of Rs 5.52 million. These are huge losses but this is not the worst part of economic impact of climate change on KP’s economy. Officials at the Agriculture Research Centre, has alarmed that the huge devastation was a long-term peril to provincial economy and agriculture as lands affected by the flooding would take many years to grow crops again.
On September 5th 2022, ex-CM Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Mahmood Khan, formally approved the KP Climate Change Policy 2022 alongside a detailed action plan to implement this policy. As per details, more than 170 different factors have been identified in the policy that contribute in climate change of KP and finally the policy defined specific measures for KP governments to overcome the possible adverse impact of climate change.
Although, the previous KP government worked on some policy measures to adapt according to climate change policy there are still many areas to focus. Government has introduced financial instruments for the flood victims and climate change awareness yet the restoration of houses and markets remain a very slow process and there is very little time before next summer season will set in. Considering the nature of threat posed by climate changes to economy, Pakistan needs a national level response strategy.
