Geopolitical Context of Pakistan’s Internal Security Challenges
Shahzad Masood Roomi
Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has faced a steady increase in terrorism originating from across the border. In 2021, there were around 470 security-related incidents in Pakistan. This number grew to 715 in 2022 and surged to over 2,000 in 2023, with the trend continuing in 2024. In recent weeks, the Pakistan Army has lost officers and soldiers in ambushes, IED blasts, and firefights with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its splinter groups. Despite these challenges, security forces have continued to combat terrorism and have eliminated various high-profile terrorists.
The terrorism in Pakistan is largely linked to Afghanistan, where the interim Taliban government has failed to prevent the use of Afghan soil for terrorist activities in neighboring countries. The TTP has declared itself an extension of the Afghan Taliban, and Kabul has not denied this claim. Pakistan has repeatedly requested the Afghan government to control TTP’s activities and prevent their ingress into Pakistan. Unfortunately, Kabul has not only failed to act but has also denied the presence of TTP on its soil.
This situation raises serious questions about the nature of terrorism in Pakistan, the real motives of the TTP, and the strategic context of this phenomenon.
Pakistan’s potential as a regional geoeconomic integrator is being challenged by the TTP, which benefits regional players who do not want to see a peaceful and prosperous Pakistan. Heightened terrorism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan began around the same time as Pakistan started discussing its potential as a bridge between India, Bangladesh, China, the Middle East, Northern Africa, and even Europe. The war in Afghanistan has played a significant role in this situation. India, a traditional foe, has seized this opportunity to target Balochistan and KP. KP is a strategic target because it offers the shortest path to the Gwadar port, which is a vital part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Pakistan’s intelligence and security forces have exposed India’s role in terrorism many times, presenting documented evidence. The arrest of Indian RAW agent Kulbhushan Jadhav in Balochistan was a significant success for Pakistan. Jadhav’s arrest and the revelation of India’s long-running media campaign against Pakistan on international forums highlight the extent of New Delhi’s efforts to undermine Pakistan and Chinese geo-economic interests. Pakistan has driven Indian-sponsored TTP and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) elements into Afghanistan, from where they have initiated a new phase of terror in Pakistan. The question remains whether the dynamics behind this fresh wave of terrorism are the same or if new variables have entered the strategic equation of the region.
The Indian political elite’s strategic designs and the Indo-US strategic partnership agreements signed in recent decades are longstanding elements of India’s foreign policy towards Pakistan. The convergence of interests with Washington against China (and its strategic ally Pakistan) after the introduction of the Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022 has given India new impetus to claim to be a Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Indian activities in Afghanistan have raised concerns in Pakistan, where the TTP’s terror campaign has intensified, targeting Pakistani and Chinese interests, such as the attack on Chinese engineers in Dasu. These developments present an alarming picture for Pakistan’s internal security in the coming months.
There is growing anxiety in Pakistan about this prolonged conflict, and some question when it will finally end. Several key points need to be understood:
History shows that foreign-sponsored insurgencies, masked as ethnic or linguistic rights movements, are the toughest to combat. In Pakistan’s case, the religious angle adds another layer of complexity, as many young people have fallen into the trap of terrorists.
Pakistan needs consistency in its policies. The first wave of TTP was successfully defeated by the Pakistan Army around 2017-18. However, the recent resurgence of TTP from Afghanistan began when the state changed its policy and allowed some of these elements to return under a peace deal. Recent TTP attacks have shown that they cannot be trusted.
All wars ultimately end through political negotiations. The TTP and Afghan Taliban are not just parties to this conflict; they are instruments of chaos and violence aimed at undermining Pakistan’s potential. The Afghan Taliban support the Indian-sponsored TTP to gain diplomatic recognition from New Delhi.
Pakistan needs a broader regional approach, in collaboration with China, to pressure the Afghan Taliban into fulfilling their international commitments, as the terrorism has strong regional geopolitical linkages.
A peaceful KP means a peaceful and prosperous Pakistan. Achieving peace in KP is a strategic imperative that must be pursued at all costs. This can be accomplished through a whole-of-nation approach as outlined in the National Action Plan of 2014 and reiterated in Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. May Allah guide and protect us. Ameen.
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