Afghanistan is strategically the most important geography for Asia particularly for South East Asia. This landlocked country is a land-bridge between Indian subcontinent and Central Asia and Western Asia (commonly known as the Middle East). The country has been the victim of global geopolitical contest for control of pivotal lands, minerals and strategic encirclement of competitors. First former USSR and then USA invaded Afghanistan under different pretexts but at both times, respective agendas were not what was told to the world. The US war on terror actually failed the region as after 2001, the entire subcontinent witnessed the worst terrorism particularly both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In August 2021, when US appetite for Afghan war ended, Kabul took over Afghanistan after a negotiated settlement with the US. Soon afterwards, hostilities between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan began to surface. Since August 2021, there have been multiple incidents of border clashes between the 2 sides on lower scale. TTP continued to attack Pakistani troops manning Pak-Afghan international border.
These tenacious tensions highlight 2 major reasons behind Taliban’s hostile demeanor towards Pakistan.
- Post 9/11 policies of Pakistan towards Afghan Taliban
- Historic Pak-Afghan border claims
Firstly, the foreign policy adopted by Pakistan after 9/11 has created a deep rift between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. This rift was further deepen by previous Afghan regimes and Indian intelligence apparatus working on Afghan soil from where a ruthless war was imposed on Pakistan. All these forces are still trying to maintain and inflate this tension. Pak-Afghan relations are subject to Indian and the US media where small incidents like current land dispute are being portrayed as some large scale conflict.
Secondly, Ever since the Taliban took control of Kabul in 2021, there have been fears that the Taliban, who came to power by hailing the US withdrawal as a victory, would reignite the historic border dispute with Pakistan where Afghanistan considers current Pak-Afghan border demarcation against her sovereignty.
These fears met with reality when Taliban, after taking control over Kabul, began the process of tearing down the border fence on the Pak-Afghan border. The Afghan position on the border demarcation is that the Pakistan-Afghan border should be demarcated on the east of the entire Malakand Division. Although internationally this Afghan position is not accepted globally the Taliban have been maintaining this position since the times of Mullah Omar who was considered as strategic ally of Pakistan.
In last 30 days, multiple incidents of clashes between the two sides have been reported from both KPK and Baluchistan parts of Pak-Afghan border. Exchange of fire between two sides is nothing new but not only frequency of such incidents is increasing, the lethality is also multiplied resulting in larger and more intense clashes. Pakistani troops sustained multiple fatalities during fresh rounds of clashes.
Many reasons are being described behind this renewed tension like land disputes originated by erection of border fencing by Pakistan or smugglers staging fake incidents of security but this increasing hostilities at tactical levels demands a more comprehensive appraisal.
As Pakistani security forces have upped the pace of their COIN/CT operations in KPK large number of terrorists are fleeing from Pakistan who are being instigated against Pakistan again. On the other hand, there are remnants of NDS who do not allow any chance of terrorism against Pakistan. All these activities are being sponsored by India and other allies of her. These events are creating a chain-reaction leading to more anti-Pakistan sentiments in Afghanistan.
Such incidents of border fire exchange leads to closure of border and suspension of trade which in turn contributes to poor economic situation in Afghanistan creating a conducive environment for hostile forces to recruit new cadre of TTP/ISKP and launch them against Pakistan leading to fresh round of hostilities. Right now, Pak-Afghan relations have become hostage of this vicious cycle.
To make the matters worse, the efforts made by the tribal elders to resolve the tension fail to bear any fruit as fragile peace at border continue to break for one reason or the other.
Now the question is, what can Pakistan do in this situation? Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to this question. Pakistan should not enter into any armed conflict with Afghanistan at any cost as this will be a disaster of unimaginable scale and intensity on Western borders. But at the same time, Islamabad must ensure that the Afghan Taliban keep their promise of not letting their territory to be used for terrorism against Pakistan. They made this promise in Doha during the negotiations with the US before taking control of Kabul. In this regard, Pakistan will have to make it clear to the world through aggressive diplomacy that Pakistan will go to any extent to ensure its integrity and whosoever is involved in terrorism in Pakistan will be held accountable and will be punished. Kinetic options must remain on the table as an option if diplomacy fails.
Finally, it’s a strategic imperative for Islamabad to make Kabul understand, either through diplomacy or kinetic options, that Pak-Afghan relations, stability, and connectivity hold paramount importance for the stability of the entire region. Frequent occurrences like border tensions and unrest can create permanent hostilities between the two countries with serious implications, particularly in a scenario where multiple anti-peace forces are desperately trying to wedge a gulf between Islamabad and Kabul.
