Pakistan is located at a geographical position that is considered the eye of geopolitical storm in the region. On one side, the country is surrounded by a strategic black hole known as Afghanistan while on the other side a 5 times larger neighbor with whom Pakistan has the world’s longest unresolved conflict. To make the matters worse this neighbor (India) is being run by communal hooligans openly threatening Pakistan for their political objectives. This situation has created complex national security challenges for Pakistan many of which have historic roots outside Pakistan e.g Kashmir, terrorism etc.
Corollary of above mentioned complex geopolitical milieu is that today Pakistan faces a range of security challenges, both internal and external. These challenges are complex and multifaceted, and they have direct and detrimental implications for the country’s security, regional stability, and economic development.
On Internal axis, below are most concerning prevailing security challenges:
TTP’s religious terrorism: The Taliban insurgency has been a major challenge for Pakistan, particularly in the border regions with Afghanistan.
BLA’s ethnic separatism and Terrorism: Ethnic Baloch separatism which morphed into terrorism has been a long-standing challenge for Pakistan, with separatist groups seeking greater autonomy or independence for the Balochistan province.
Sectarian extremism: Pakistan has been facing sectarian extremism, which has resulted in violence and instability. Like terrorism, this challenge also has its tentacles outside Pakistan.
Lack of Political cohesion: Political divide in Pakistan has took an unfortunate violent turn during last 2 years. Incidents like targeted killings and attacks on political opponents, clashes between political workers and civilian security forces, and finally incidents like May 9th 2023 has emerged as new challenge for the state of Pakistan.
Socio-economic challenges: Economic viability of all factions is a fundamental requirement for a peaceful nation state. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s prolonged failure to overcome its economic challenges, corruption, nepotism, and lack of accountability has torn the social fabric and resulted in growing incidents of law and order, and civil disobedience (reference of protests over electricity bills).
On the external front, Pakistan has been battling many security challenges which unfortunately have grown in scale and intensity overtime. India Pakistan conflict over Kashmir has been the longest outstanding issue on UNSC agenda and the most concerning security challenge for the country as Kashmir is critical for Pakistan’s survival. Pakistan’s agri based economy depends on water coming from Kashmir where India has already initiated a ruthless hydrological assault on Pakistan by building multiple reservoirs on Pakistani rivers. In short, Kashmir has morphed into a bigger economic challenge in the long term from a territorial conflict. A nation can sustain itself with a prolonged territorial conflict but only if it is not linked with its long-term economic viability. This situation demands a quick settlement of this issue between Islamabad and New Delhi. For Pakistan the biggest challenge is the regime reining New Delhi. BJP/RSS Hindutva inspired regime has been using historic Indo-Pakistan rivalry and domestic anti-Muslim communal tactics to further its politics. Both countries came to the brink of a full blown war in 2019 when a false flag terrorist attack took place over Indian occupied forces in illegally Indian occupied Kashmir and India launched air raids on mainland Pakistan for the first time after 1971. Pakistani response was swift and prevented India from establishing a “new normal” similar to Israel’s complete dominance over Iraqi and Syrian air spaces.
In the short to medium term, Afghanistan has emerged a strategic black hole for Pakistan pulling Pakistan’s future into darkness in economic security terms. The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been strained due to issues such as cross-border terrorism and the presence of militant groups in the border regions. This has led to increased tensions between the two countries, which can negatively impact regional stability.
Both India and Afghanistan are involved in backing terrorism in Pakistan from Chiral to Balochistan. Traditionally, India and Iran were involved in supporting terror activities on Pakistani soil, now Afghan interim government is allowing TTP and BLA to operate from Afghanistan freely against Pakistan. Pakistan has repeatedly asked Kabul to abide by Doha agreement where it was ensured that interim Afghan Taliban government will not allow the use of Afghanistan as launch pad against any other country. Today, Afghan Taliban maintain close ties with many elements of TTP posing a threat to regional and national security. This is creating a serious law and order situation in Pakistan by increasing the frequency and intensity of terrorism in Pakistan.
As a response, Pakistan has made it clear that its fight against foreign sponsored and supported terrorism will continue but at the same time Afghanistan will have to play its part.
“Terrorism has no place in Pakistan, and the involvement of Afghan nationals in terrorist incidents in Pakistan is detrimental to regional peace, stability, and deviation from the Doha peace agreement by the interim Afghan government,” COAS Gen. Asim Munir said at a meeting with tribal elders in Peshawar earlier this year. He also pointed out Afghanistan’s failure in eliminating sanctuaries available to banned outfits. COAS’s resolve was seconded by Pakistani foreign office where another problematic angle of Afghanistan’s bound terrorism was highlighted i.e “large amount of weaponry” available in Afghanistan which is being used by Afghan Taliban to run undocumented parallel economy. They are selling the weapons left behind by NATO/US to highest bidders. These weapons and military accessories have appeared in large amount with TTP/BLA militant in recent months. The foreign backers of TTP/BLA are the reason why there is no end to Pakistan’s war on terror. It has been more than 22 years since Pakistan initiated its war against terror. Though Pakistan has uprooted the large scale infrastructure of terrorism on its soil, terrorism in Pakistan continues with varying intensity and frequency in the Pakistan. This terrorism in Pakistan is mainly linked with situation in Afghanistan, a country that has provided safe havens to TTP and BLA and has become a bigger security concern for Islamabad than Pakistan’s arch rival. In the latest episode of this Afghanistan based terrorism in Pakistan at least four security personal embraced martyrdom while more than 16 terrorists were eliminated earlier in the month. Terrorists’ attempts to enter Pakistan from Afghanistan were foiled by troops deployed along the border with Afghanistan. This was not an isolated incident but part of a continuous terror campaign by foreign proxies like TTP. As per reports, half of the current year witnessed a steady and alarming rise in terror and suicide attacks, claiming the lives of 389 people across the country. Use of sophisticated weapons like sniper gun and automatic assault rifles has increased manifold in such incidents.
Islamabad, during this month, has for the first time said that there was also involvement of Afghan citizens in terror attacks in Pakistan. Pakistani authorities have also urged Kabul for action against TTP and BLA many times already. Involvement of Afghan citizen in acts of terrorism in Pakistan is a dimension that has added complexity in Pakistan’s bilateral relations with Kabul.
Apart from these kinetic security challenges, Pakistan is also facing an array of threats which fall in the category of Non-traditional security challenges. These include macroeconomic instability, climate change, cyber security, and food, energy and water insecurity. These challenges can have significant implications for the country’s security and viability.
To address these security challenges, Pakistan needs to implement measures addressing the root causes of these challenges. Most importantly, it must be understood that not all security challenges are of kinetic nature and require a non-kinetic approach especially threats the state is facing from internal axis like economic mismanagement and political instability. Pakistan army has been making colossal sacrifices since more than last 2 decades and still there is no end to this war in foreseeable future unless Pakistan make Afghanistan fulfill her own promises to world or go all out against this menace in that country. But in order to do that, first pakistan needs to put house in order, heal and recover from internal conflicts. To address socio-economic challenges, solving political crisis is paramount. Pakistan needs a sustainable and growing economy not only to meet the needs of growing population but also to keep our traditional rivals and emerging opponents at bay. A strong army marches on a strong economy and economic stability demands political stability and continuity of policies. These measures are essential to ensure that all the blood Pakistan’s valiant sons have spilled over the decades don’t go wasted!
